Pdf deterministic seismic hazard analysis considering non. Probabilistic versus deterministic seismic hazard analysis. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha, as well as those from the neo deterministic analysis ndsha, which have been already developed for several regions worldwide including italy, india and north africa, are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the crosscomparative analysis in spotting. The results of such an analysis are expressed as estimated probabilities per year or estimated annual frequencies. Elsevier engineering geology 40 1995 1 7 engneern giogy opinion paper deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for critical structures ellis l. Probabilistic seismic hazard annual rate of exceedance for a given ground motion, z sources already discussed normal distribution lognormal distribution multiplying source rates and probability of exceeding ground motion level adding exceedances for a ground motion level to get total hazard curve. The numericalanalytical approach to psha was first formalized by cornell 1968. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the city of corinthcentral greece 3 correspond to earthquake magnitudes between 6. Research information letter 09001, preliminary deterministic. Seismic hazard assessment should continue to evolve, unfettered by almost ideological allegiance to particular approaches, with the understanding of earthquake. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis gives a cap value for the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. A dsha involves the development of a particular seismic scenario upon which a ground motion hazard evaluation is based. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha, as well as those from the neodeterministic analysis ndsha, which have been already developed for several regions worldwide including italy, india and north africa, are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the crosscomparative analysis in spotting.
Doctoral thesis, nanyang technological university, singapore. Integrating outcomes from probabilistic and deterministic. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the city of. For areal sources, selection of deterministic event is uncertain probabilistic advantages. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of gorakhpur region. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of the region ijert. Papazachosd a department of the earth sciences, university of trieste, italy b department of geophysics, faculty of geology, geophysics and environmental protection, agh university of science and technology, krakow. Ceen 545 lecture 8 part 1 seismic hazard analysis youtube. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for pakistan. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses in.
A deterministic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out for various sites of the major cities ahmedabad, surat, bhuj, jamnagar and junagadh of the. The seismic hazard assessment has been performed extensively in the past decades. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis the national. Abstract seismic hazard analysis is a method of quantifying the area in terms of topographical and seismological data. In this study, we have evaluated the probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard for the city of almaty, the largest city in kazakhstan, which has a population of nearly two million people. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha is a methodology that estimates the likelihood that various levels of earthquakecaused ground motions will be exceeded at a given location in a given future time period. This has led us to choose gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. We also used two frequencymagnitude models to evaluate earthquake source potential in our psha. Page 1 nptel earthquake geotechnical engineering dept.
The hazard in using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for engineering ellis l. Pdf the deterministic seismic hazard assessment dsha study was carried out for the provincial capital of kerman, iran. This topic addresses deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, ground motion attenuation relationships, the u. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha initial approach taken to seismic risk investigation discovered in nuclear power engineering applications in deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha, is organized for a meticulous earthquake, also realistic or assumed. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis for coimbatore corporation was carried out by considering 51 possible sources within a radius of 350 km. A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are frequently represented as irreconcilably different approaches to the problem of calculating earthquake ground motions for design, each method fervently defended by its proponents. Nuclear power plant design and seismic safety considerations. A seismic hazard is the probability that an earthquake will occur in a given geographic area, within a given window of time, and with ground motion intensity exceeding a given threshold. With a hazard thus estimated, risk can be assessed and included in such areas as building codes for standard buildings, designing larger buildings and infrastructure projects, land use planning.
Seismic hazard, deterministic approach, probabilistic approach, uniform risk spectra, hazard deaggregation introduction the seismic hazard analysis refers to the estimation of some measure of the strong earthquake ground motion expected to occur at a selected site. There is a great deal of uncertainty about the location, size, and resulting shaking intensity of future earthquakes. Seismic hazard describes earthquakes or consequences of the earthquakes i. Indian institute of technology, kanpur 1 module 7 seismic hazard analysis lectures 33 to 36 topics 7. Unfortunately, this book cant be printed from the openbook. Seismic hazard map for the state of karnataka with local site. However, information has been accumulating which shows convincingly that psha is a defective procedure. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha are. Estimation of seismic ground motions using deterministic. A numerical example of a simplified hazard analysis is given in chapter 3. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis considering noncontrolling. Feb 07, 2017 this lecture is the first in a twopart series introducing the topic of seismic hazard analysis. An introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha.
Hazard anticipated ground motion at siteanticipated ground motion at site risk damage or losses to societydamage or losses to society probabilisitic considers uncertainty in input parameters e. This line of thinking motivates an approach known as deterministic hazard analysis, but we will see that. The simplest approach in trying to determine the correlation between significant seismic events, with active faults, is the estimation of their. Seismic hazard analysis of district headquarters dhamtari and. Gwadar city is located at the coastline of pakistan. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been practically unchallenged since its inception three decades ago. Earthquake engineering needs and seismic hazard assessment. A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in greece. Seismic hazards in thailand and adjacent areas were analyzed mainly on the basis of. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha is an approach for evaluating site specific seismic hazard that is influenced by the maximum hazard from the. The assessment was based on the environmental effects that had effectively contributed to the high destructive impact of that event. Download a pdf of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by the national research council for free. Two methods have been adopted to calculate peak ground acceleration pga.
Two kinds of seismic hazard analysis were investigated in this study. The aim of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha is to measure the probability of over and above range of ground action levels at a site given all probable earthquakes. Response spectra for 7 major cities and kaiga site, where nuclear reactor plant is located, at rock level is presented in fig. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Seismic hazard map for the state of karnataka with local site effects. A deterministic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out for various sites of the major cities ahmedabad, surat, bhuj, jamnagar and junagadh of the gujarat region in india to compute the seismic hazard exceeding a certain level in terms of peak ground acceleration pga and to estimate maximum possible pga at each site at bed. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of ahmedabad region has been carried out considering past earthquake data and available seismotectonic information. An interdisciplinary approach was adopted by integrating. Pdf deterministic seismic hazard analysis of ahmedabad.
A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in greece l. Such shocks occurred in both short or longer distances from corinth. Seismic hazards can be quantified from seismic hazard analysis, such as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha and deterministic seismic hazard analysis dsha. The most comprehensive treatment to date is the sshac 1997. A hazard assessment of the 1976 guatemala earthquake m 7. Pdf deterministic seismic hazard analysis and calculating.
Indian institute of technology, kanpur 1 module 7 seismic hazard analysis lectures 33 to 36 lecture 34 topics 7. Most of the studies focus on the zone with medium to high seismicity. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for. Since then, engineers have adopted a more comprehensive approach to design known as probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha. In the present paper seismic hazard analysis has been presented using deterministic method. Probability is needed to obtain operating basis earthquakes. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in. Introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Deterministic median, or 84th percentile advantages.
Deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for critical structures. Method is good enough for measuring dynamic ground motion parameters which will help in design process. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the city of corinth. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis of the region. A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in greece article pdf available in tectonophysics 4421. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in province of dki jakarta case study. Seismic hazard analysis, deterministic method, probabilistic. What is probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha. Seismic hazard map for the state of karnataka with local. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha aims to quantify these uncertainties, and combine them to produce an explicit description of the distribution of future shaking.
Deterministic versus probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Pga was calculated, using maximum past earthquake close to each. An introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. With a hazard thus estimated, risk can be assessed and included in such areas as building codes for standard buildings, designing larger buildings and. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis notes edurev. Seismic hazard analysis of district headquarters dhamtari. This lecture is the first in a twopart series introducing the topic of seismic hazard analysis. Fema 451b topic 5a notes seismic hazard analysis 4 instructional material complementing fema 451, design examples seismic hazard analysis 5a 4 approaches to seismic hazard analysis deterministic the earthquake hazard for the site is a peak ground acceleration of 0. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha aims to quantify these uncertainties, and combine them to produce an explicit. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis 201 spatial variation of mean pga value at rock level in the karnataka state is shown in the fig. Sitespecific deterministic seismic hazard analysis of surabaya, indonesia.
Sitespecific deterministic seismic hazard analysis of. This chapter gives descriptions of basic concepts of deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses in thailand. Earthquakes data in province of dki jakarta on january 1945 december 2015 gebri adinda1, rb.
A deterministic seismic hazard analysis has been carried out for various sites of the major cities ahmedabad, surat, bhuj, jamnagar and junagadh of the gujarat region in india to compute the. Pdf a deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow. Krinitzsky waterways experiment station, geotechnical laboratory, vicksburg, ms, united states both the deterministic and probabilistic methods of seismic hazard analysis serve necessary purposes. The goal of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis psha is to quantify the rate or probability of exceeding various groundmotion levels at a site or a map of sites given all possible earthquakes. Earthquake catalogue of the region covering 350 km radius around the ahmedabad city has been. Seismic hazard analysis for gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques.
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